The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter skillful something rather extraordinary in the previous 20 days. It shifted ratings for eight House races in favor of Democrats, Here’s Another Good Sign for Democrats’ 2022 Hopes.
David Wasserman, who oversees House elections for the nonpartisan campaign tip sheet, wrote on Wednesday that Democrats “continue to poll two to three points better than earlier this year in most regions, giving officials in slightly blue regions some cushion and putting a handful more GOP seats in play”.
Now, it’s important to note that Republicans still only need to win six of the 31 races that Cook rates as “toss-ups” in order to take control of the House. This is especially true when you consider that the party without the presidency has historically performed much better in midterm elections. Wasserman makes this point as well.
Therefore, it is incorrect to interpret the most recent rating variations as a guarantee that Democrats would maintain their majority. In fact, the majority of analysts currently substantially favor Republicans in the election. In 48 days, Republicans have a 72% probability of regaining the majority, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Cook’s changes, though, do indicate that the Republican wave. Which appeared to be gathering only this summer, appears to have dissolved in some serious ways.
Simply said, handicapping websites would be shifting marginal Democratic seats into more dangerous area if there was still a chance that a significant Republican wave would sweep the country come November.
All of the traffic would be one-way, and Democratic seats that were formerly thought to be secure would be perceived as eroding due to President Joe Biden’s dismal polling results and continued inflation worries.
Here’s Another Good Sign for Democrats’ 2022 Hopes, but that’s not taking place. The prospects for Democrats are actually getting better as the election nears, at least in some races.
If the general pattern persists for the following seven weeks. Which is anyone’s estimate, this has a number of significant effects:
- Even if Republicans win the majority in the House in November. It might be by a slim margin, making it harder for them to enact their agenda.
- That would strengthen organizations like the House Freedom Caucus. Whose members can exercise significant influence over the Republican agenda as long as they keep together?
- Democrats would have an easier time regaining the majority in 2024. A year in which turnout should aid them in mobilizing their supporter base.